Prediction of the state of electromechanical systems

Issue: Reliability of energy supply to electricity consumers is one of the two most important criteria of electricity quality. In the energy sector, there are no universal methods of solving problems of reliability analysis. An important part of these tasks is the simulation of failures of lines, generators, transformers, switchgear. The development of IT has led to the appearance of virtual failure analyzers, which form a reference (virtual) mathematical model of the functioning of the EES in normal mode, as well as the current mathematical model, which can be restored from the data of state measurements in such analyzers measured inconsistency between the parameters of the reference and the real system, which allows you to diagnose parametric failures.

Project objectives:

- Development of the model of EES functioning, scenarios and failure models for the purpose of development and demonstration of the method of diagnostics of the technical state of the electric power complex elements on the basis of energy criteria.

- Development of algorithms and software for the method of diagnostics of the technical state (TS) of the elements of the electric power complex on the basis of energy criteria.

- Studies of the efficiency of the method of diagnostics of EES elements TC on the basis of energy criteria in order to assess the prospects of the method and substantiate the recommendations on the implementation of the method in the intelligent system of monitoring the state of the EES

- Development of the concept and specifications for the creation of the AC monitoring of the technical condition of electromechanical systems

Approaches: The failure corresponds to the change in modal energy generated by the technical device, hence the modal energy calculated from the current mathematical model using the sub-gradian method can serve as an indirect criterion for the development of parametric failure in the technical device.

Research methods: Spectral methods of analysis of the covariance matrix of complex multiresonance dynamic systems - linear and nonlinear systems with smooth nonlinearities, described by ordinary differential equations. It is necessary to know the mathematical model of the power system, which can be restored from the data of measurements of the states of the system. In this case, the mod energy of the technical devices and systems we are interested in is calculated.

Object of research: Energy balance and changes in its spectral components in the process of functioning of EES